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English Section
Publicat de Ovidiu Stefanescu
18 Dec 2014 14:24
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 After the Romanian economy exceeded expectations in 2013, when GDP grew by 3.5%, the positive trend continued in the second quarter (+2.6%). Afterwards, during April-June 2014, became the first visible signs of slowdown of development (-1% compared to the previous three months). However, growth in annual terms was close to 3% in nine months after the surprising rise in GDP in the third quarter, supported mainly by agriculture and services. Accordingly, changes in the course of the entire year could be close to 3%. Even under these circumstances, the construction sector continued to contract. The decline indicated by the National Statistics Institute (INS) was of 11.7% in January-September 2014, particularly after the collapse of the infrastructure sector (the volume of civil engineering works recorded a contraction of 28.3%). According to the latest predictions of the Oxford Economics analysts, the Romania's GDP could increase by 2.3% in 2014. Simultaneously, the construction sector continued to decline, mainly due to lower volume of infrastructure works. However, residential and non-residential construction increased in the first nine months of the year, with 31.2% and 10.3%. According to the latest reports by Oxford Economics, GDP is expected to accelerate to 3.5% of Romania in 2015, supported by all sectors of the economy, including the construction segment. The annual inflation rate reached in September 2013 - September 2014, a level of 1.54%. National Bank of Romania (BNR) decreased the monetary policy interest rate twice during the last quarter, to 3%, in order to encourage lending and stimulate economic growth. The exchange rate was relatively stable in the third quarter of 2014, the rate varying between 4.38 RON and 4.44 RON for one euro. At the same time, the government debt fell to 38.5% of GDP and is the third lowest in the European Union and the new deficit target for 2014 is set to 2.4% of the GDP. In this context, the government investments decreased by 15% during the first nine months of 2014, to 16.5 billion RON (EUR 3.8 billion). |
